继承与创新：沃尔兹新现实主义理论定位再探讨

肯尼思·沃尔兹的新现实主义是国际政治研究的里程碑,但学界对这一里程碑含义的理解可能存在偏差。这一理论不是国际政治研究科学化的起点,而是对古典现实主义核心论点的历史性再诠释。沃尔兹和其他古典现实主义者一样认为人的理性能力存在限度,相信实力对比是进行利益划分的客观依据,劝告政治家遵行责任伦理。古典现实主义者与沃尔兹之间的差异并没有想象的大,古典现实主义者也强调安全,他们发现国际政治中存在着安全困境,追求过多权力会导致不安全,国家追求权力应适可而止。古典现实主义者还发现世界政治中因果关系非常复杂,事件的结果绝少和当事者的动机一致,“事与愿违”是政治中的常态,这与沃尔兹强调的“系统效应”相似。新古典现实主义者试图将沃尔兹的理论进一步科学化,他们希望结合结构变量与单元变量,提出更科学的理论解释、预测国家的行为,这不仅误解了沃尔兹,也背离了现实主义传统。     

Stages of change and engagement in a family intervention

Prochaska and DiClemente's stages of change model facilitate understanding of engagement difficulties in psychosocial intervention processes. We assessed the link between stages of family change and intervention dropout in a sample of 141 families with relational conflicts between parents and adolescent children. Each family member's stage of change was defined according to three criteria: seeing the conflict as a relational problem, assuming part of the responsibility for the dysfunctional relationship, and understanding one's own mental and emotional states and those of the other family members involved in the conflict (mentalization). Our dropout rate for the sample was 41.8% and was higher for immigrant families. We found a strong association between engagement and the contemplation stage of change, particularly the mother's. In family conflict interventions, participation of all the family members is essential so as raise awareness of the relational aspects of the conflict and the shared responsibility for the conflict and its resolution.     

孔子前儒学思想的萌芽

儒家学派的创建者是孔丘，儒学的核心思想是仁，而仁也是中华民族文化的核心。在孔丘之前儒学核心思想的仁学已经出现了萌芽，如公孙轩辕的‘以仁德服天下’，伊尹的儒学启蒙思想，以及周公旦的‘敬德保民’都对孔丘有着深刻的影响，所以我们认为孔丘的儒学是在前人理论的基础上建立而成的。     

Children of prisoners: exploring the impact of families' reappraisal of the role and status of the imprisoned parent on children's coping strategies

Qualitative data from a larger study on the impact of parental imprisonment in four countries found that children of prisoners face fundamentally similar psychological and social challenges. The ways that children cope, however, are influenced by the interpretative frame adopted by the adults around them, and by how issues of parental imprisonment are talked about in their families. This article argues that families have to reappraise their view of the imprisoned parent and then decide on their policy for how to deal with this publicly. Their approach may be based on openness and honesty or may emphasise privacy and secrecy, or a combination of these. Children are likely to be influenced by their parents'/carers' views, although these may cause conflict for them. Where parents/carers retain a positive view of the imprisoned parent, children are likely to benefit; where parents/carers feel issues of shame and stigma acutely, this is likely to be transmitted to their children. This is important for social workers and practitioners involved in supporting prisoners' families and for parenting programmes.     

论行政登记在司法审查中的两个误区——以房屋登记行政诉讼案为切入点

近年来,企图通过行政诉讼解决民事纠纷之实例频现于行政登记领域,尤以房屋登记行政诉讼案最为典型。然而,大量涌现的类似诉讼现象却难逃正当性拷问,在其背后潜藏着两个误区:撤销行政登记必然影响民事法律关系变动、行政诉讼撤销判决必然存在适用空间。两个误区的形成分别源自对行政登记功能定位的片面认识与对行政登记合法要件的抉择失当,因而有必要从功能定位的视角厘清许可式、确认式、公示式登记对民事法律关系变动的影响,也有必要探讨实然与应然、长远与当下所应采取的审查方式,进而确定该审查方式下行政登记在司法审查中所应确立的合法要件,以上举措是走出前述误区的关键。     

文化遗产国际司法保护的发展

从19世纪开始,破坏文化遗产的行为就被确认是违反国际人道法的行为,故此,《前南斯拉夫国际法庭规约》确认前南刑事法庭对在巴尔干地区冲突中犯下的破坏文化遗产的罪行享有管辖权。通过对该法庭审判的相关案例的实证研究,认为该法庭的审判实践了1954年《海牙公约》和1977年日内瓦公约两个议定书所确立的保护文化遗产的原则,为加强对文化遗产的国际保护提供了更丰富的国际法的依据。     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

Robust Designs in Generalized Linear Models: A Quantile Dispersion Graphs Approach

This article studies design selection for generalized linear models (GLMs) using the quantile dispersion graphs (QDGs) approach in the presence of misspecification in the link and/or linear predictor. The uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by a unknown function and estimated using kriging. For addressing misspecified link functions, a generalized family of link functions is used. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

The Optimal Allocation Combination for the One-Sided Sequential Screening Procedure Based on the Individual Misclassification Error

In this article, the expected total costs of three kinds of quality cost functions for the one-sided sequential screening procedure based on the individual misclassification error are obtained, where the expected total cost is the sum of the expected cost of inspection, the expected cost of rejection, and the expected cost of quality. The computational formulas for three kinds of expected total costs are derived when k screening variables are allocated into r stages. The optimal allocation combination is determined based on the criterion of minimum expected total cost. At last, we give one example to illustrate the selection of the optimal allocation combination for the sequential screening procedure.     

Enabling everything: scale,disability and the film The Theory of Everything

This article looks at the representation of scale in the 2014 film The Theory of Everything, identifying moments that relate to three concerns: firstly, how disabled people experience scale issues at an all too practical level in daily life; secondly, how Hawking’s experience of scale at the level of both body and mind is (a)typical of the way it is experienced by disabled people generally; and, thirdly, how a focus on the film can prompt some rethinking of perspectives both within disability studies and within the conceptualisation of scale more broadly.